ON EL NINO IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES: ISABELA EXPERIENCE

ON EL NINO IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES: ISABELA EXPERIENCE

Virgilio T. Villancio


The impact of El Nino on the productivity of rice and corn were clearly stated by the speaker. The trend in rice and corn production showed decline during the El Nino period compared to every previous year production. One thing that caught my attention is the ability of production to bounce back to its supposedly normal production period hence showing an upward trend in production despite the El Nino disturbances. This is primarily due to the increase in area harvested during normal years particularly during the January-June harvest. With this observation, I started looking at the possible inconsistencies between the reported occurrences of El Nino in the Province of Isabela (Table 3) and the comparison of palay production during the normal and El Nino years (Table 4). Year 1998 was one of the severely felt El Nino year which was not mentioned in Table 3 but table 4 did show a decline in production by as much as 36 percent compared to 1997 production. The same trend was shown in corn production. Of course the mixed trends in production could not solely be attributed to El Nino since the province is also frequently visited by typhoon which partially explains why there are lower productions during July-December in some years. With this, I agree that improving our databases, is necessary in designing and implementing strategies to cope up and lessen the impact of El Nino.
Yes, there are production decline in rice and corn production and these involved more than 100,000 farm households. I would like to know how they were affected by El Nino and how did it impact on there lives. I do not have personal experience on how rice farmers able to cope with El Nino and thereafter. My personal knowledge about one of our farmer in Laguna whose crop was completely damaged by typhoon can probably illustrate how it is. Production may be able to bounce back the next normal season but the farm households still have to bear the impact of the aftermath of the disaster. This farmer able to pay the losses he incurred as a result of the typhoon damage for almost four seasons. It is good that he still able to pay. He needed four good seasons to make up for a bad season. The same experience is true in the case of the coconut farmers, whose nut production were drastically reduced after a drought year and take at least two years before production recovers. With this, I would like to emphasize that if the farm households are the one who received the worst impact, then we have to understand how they are coping with it and then design with them strategies to be prepared and ready with El Nino.
The initiatives of the local governments at the provincial and municipal level are commendable. Every government instrumentalities are mobilized due to impending disaster as El Nino. I could also appreciate the limitation they have in meeting the problems associated with it such as the lack of funds, deficiency of databases, and short term and ad hoc nature of various interventions made.
Let us take a look at the trend in area harvested to rice, which showed a great decline from 1992 1993 until 1998 and then an increasing trend since 1999. I do not what happened in 1999, but I would like to believe that efforts were made to expand rice areas to where it is in 1992. I have to speculate that some irrigation systems should have been rehabilitated or that the shallow tube well, which were distributed after the El Nino in 1998 should have been in operation (Table 7). What I want to point out is that to mitigate the impact of El Nino, we do not have to look at it as a disaster but something that could be internalized into our planning horizon. Intervention will not only be on the construction or rehabilitation of irrigation system but should also be in making sure that watershed are rehabilitated and protected. Water is not just stored in dams but also in the mountains. Watershed management strategies may not have been viewed in the paper as an important strategy to mitigate the impact of El Nino, but the LGUs of Isabela have a significant contribution in this regard.
I agree with the recommendation to identify drought vulnerable areas and develop long term strategies to address problems before it comes. These strategies can be categorized into two: escaping from El Nino and living with El Nino. In areas where it is possible to provide water then we can escape from El Nino by providing irrigation systems, water pumps, small farm reservoir and other water providing strategies.
On the other hand, in areas where you could not escape, then live with it. The early warning system in 1998 saved a lot of losses. In Pangasinan, planting corn after rice instead of another rice as early as October resulted to higher yield of corn. This was the period when a farmer in Moncada, Tarlac able to get a yield of 9 MT per hectare using IPB 911. However, those who did not make use of the information and planted late suffered losses.
In the upland areas which are the most vulnerable, crop diversification also save the day. Root crops, which abound in Isabela (171 percent sufficiency), can be food alternatives. I remember there were days when we have to eat cassava, Yautia, banana, and even arrow root to substitute with rice. In some municipalities of Quezon Province, trees under coconut were harvested and sold for timber or fuel and the proceeds were used to buy foods. This showed my bias in agroforestry as a land use strategy in the uplands. You, may plant crops, raise animals and fish, and grow trees, to satisfy the household needs to be food secured.
Maybe we can escape from El Nino but not always. We have to live with it. El Nino is not just affecting rice and corn. It affects people lives. Those who can not escape into the wrath of El Nino and not able to live with it remains in poverty. Those in the northwestern Luzon, who had been exposed to distinct wet and dry period seems to have lived with it. We have to learn from their experiences and live with it.
These will have implication on how we view El Nino. We will not need calamity funds but regular funds. El Nino is becoming a regular occurrence and there are available technologies and strategies to mitigate its impact on people. Government can help but still more effort should also come from the people themselves. We have to provide them the means and environment to prepare themselves and not be caught napping by El Nino but rather live with it. I agree, Isabela is just starting. There are more things that can be done to cope with El nino. This, I believe, Isabela can again be number 1.

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Discussion made on the paper of Tumamao, D.B. El Nino Impacts and Coping Strategies: Isabela Experience. Presented during the In-country Seminar on El Nino, February 7, 2003 at BSWM Conference Hall, SRDC, BSWM, Diliman, Quezon City.